Rangers vs. Rays Wild Card predictions, pitching matchups and what you need to know

June 22, 2024

If you told these teams in March they would both reach the postseason, both would have been pleased. Neither entered 2023 as a prohibitive favorite. But if you told these teams in June that neither would win its division, both would have been disappointed. The baseball season is long and contains multitudes.

The competitiveness of the American League East can perhaps be best understood through the plight of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays won their first 13 games, cruised through April with a 23-6 record and finished the season with 99 victories. And still, the club finished in second place, behind the resurgent 101-win Baltimore Orioles. A dull stretch in July, in which Tampa Bay went 8-16, doomed the club to a second-place finish and a spot in the wild-card round.

For a variety of reasons, the Rays do not look as formidable as they did in April: Their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries and their best player, Wander Franco, remains on administrative leave. But the lineup is still deep and dangerous, led by All-Star first baseman Yandy Díaz. His teammate Randy Arozarena has a habit of making big plays in October.

The Texas Rangers took a rollercoaster ride to reach October. Trailing by three games in the American League West on Sept. 10, the team rallied to build a two-game lead heading into the final weekend — only to be usurped by the Houston Astros. Instead of drawing a bye, Texas must take the long road. If Corey Seager is hitting, the extra games may not matter. The Rangers made a ballyhooed trade for Max Scherzer at the deadline, but it will be another mid-season addition, Jordan Montgomery, atop the rotation as Scherzer recovers from injury. The Texas starters need to go deep to protect a flammable bullpen. — Andy McCullough

GO DEEPER

How MLB playoffs work: Bracket, rules, format

Game times

Game 1: Rangers at Rays, Tuesday, Oct. 3 at 3:08 p.m. ET, ABC

Probable starters: Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.32) vs. Tyler Glasnow (10-7, 3.53)

Game 2: Rangers at Rays, Wednesday, Oct. 4 at 3:08 p.m. ET, ABC

Game 3: Rangers at Rays, Thursday, Oct. 5 at 3:08 p.m. ET, ABC (if necessary)

Probable starters: TBD vs. TBD

Tale of the Tape

Who has the edge?

Teams	R/G	SP ERA	RP ERA	DRS
	5.47 (3rd)	3.97 (7th)	4.81 (24th)	34 (8th)
	5.27 (4th)	3.89 (4th)	3.82 (10th)	24 (12th)

Rays top performers

	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	1B/3B	22 HR, .410 OBP, .402 wOBA	4.7
Rotation	RHP	3.50 ERA, 3.4 BB%	4.8
Bullpen	RHP	2.58 ERA, 37.0 K%	1.3
Fielding	LF	4 DRS, 8 assists	3.4

Rangers top performers

	POS	KEY STATISTICS	WAR
Lineup	2B	162 G, 29 HR, 40 2B	6.3
Rotation	RHP	3.63 ERA, 0.94 HR/9	2.5
Bullpen	RHP	2.68 ERA, 0.79 HR/9	0.9
Fielding	2B	16 DRS, 5.2 UZR	6.3

Pitching matchups

Tyler Glasnow is expected to be the Rays’ starter for Game 1 in Tampa. (Brian Fluharty / USA Today)

There’s no way to slice the numbers to make the comparison between these two pitching staffs close. Full-season numbers say Tampa had the second-best staff in baseball and Texas was middle-of-the-pack whether you look at advanced stats or even more simple traditional numbers. Even if you limit the numbers to only the pitchers likely to pitch in the series and what they’ve done in the last month, it doesn’t make it look much closer.

All those injuries in the rotation have the Rangers coming to this battle with only one starter who seems to be really thriving in Montgomery, and even he’ll cede ground in a Game 1 matchup with Tyler Glasnow, at least when it comes to stuff and strikeouts. The Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi is in the middle of another late-season velocity swoon that has hurt his effectiveness while Dane Dunning’s peripherals always suggested something more like his 4.77 second-half ERA than his 2.84 first-half numbers. The Rays’ Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale are capable healthy mid-rotation starters, albeit coming off poor Septembers.

The Rangers did work to improve the bullpen, and underneath that six-plus ERA from their core relievers in the last month are some slightly more encouraging advanced metrics. The four arms that they’ve settled on recently all throw hard with good movement and standout stuff numbers, it’s just the command that has been failing them. If they can rein it in for a couple weeks, they do have enough nastiness to compete. Even then, the Rays come with a wild-card arm in Taj Bradley, who had an up-and-down year but features an elite fastball that will help him patch some holes between the starting staff and the endgame relievers.

It’s a good thing the Rangers have a great lineup because the Rays have an easy advantage in pitching. — Eno Sarris

Why the Rays will win

Tampa Bay can slug about as well as any team in the American League. The offense featured six players who hit 20 homers or more. And that group does not include designated hitter Harold Ramirez, who hit .313 with an .813 OPS and 19 doubles. Tampa Bay finished the season ranked fourth in runs, fourth in slugging and fourth in OPS. But the best statistic, at least compared to other seasons, is the group entered Sunday’s finale batting .259, a significant upgrade over their 100-win team in 2021, which hit .243 and crashed out early in the postseason. The Rays have a more complete offense with a diverse set of hitters who can handle different approaches at this time of year.

And they have Arozarena. He has become a big-stage staple, from his breakout in the 2020 postseason to another star turn in this spring’s World Baseball Classic. He missed a few games with a quad issue but returned for the final weekend of the season. The spotlight is calling his name. — Andy McCullough

Why the Rangers will win

If the Rangers stand a chance in the postseason, it will be because they set their aim high. Their rotation is depleted with injuries. Their bullpen has been bad all year. Yet even with Jacob deGrom out and Scherzer also injured, the Rangers still have two of the best players in the sport leading their lineup. Their pitching staff ranks only 19th in ERA. Yet Marcus Semien and Seager form the metaphorical heart of a lineup that ranked third in runs throughout the regular season. A supporting cast featuring the likes of Adolis García and Josh Jung is formidable. But for the Rangers to overcome their pitching woes, their big-money players must lead them through big-time moments. Semien was worth 6.3 fWAR this season, and Seager just missed out on the AL batting title. These two carried the Rangers all year, and now their contributions are needed more than ever. — Cody Stavenhagen

Staff predictions for TAM/TEX series

Team	Percentage of votes
	80%
	20%

(Top photo of Marcus Semien: Ron Schwane / Getty Images; Photo of Randy Arozarena: Lauren Sopourn / Getty Images)

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